Are we really prepared to combat #coronavirus in #Delhi?

A statistical model ‘COVID-19 Med Inventory’ — an academic initiative by Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research (JNCASR), Indian Institute of Science-Bangalore, IIT-Bombay and Armed Forces Medical College-Pune, has predicted that India is expected to witness a steep rise in COVID-19 deaths by mid-May. 

In the worst-case scenario, mortality is projected to increase to 38,220 from present 652, while the number of positive patients is predicted to touch nearly 30 lakh and over 76,000 ICU beds in hospitals will be required to handle the projected load.

Now the question is that in case, even if half of these projections become true, are we prepared to handle the rush? Do we have the infrastructure to save the precious lives of our citizens? 

Delhi:

The fact is that even today, while Delhi has less than 2,000 active positive cases of coronavirus, we are getting the strange messages in our network, that positive corona patients are not being admitted as NO BEDS AVAILABLE anywhere, while the Private hospitals are asking to deposit huge sums before admitting a corona patient.

The fact is that Delhi has just 2,860 Beds at various hospitals, for the COVID19 patients, i.e. LNJP (1,500 beds), G.B Pant (500 beds), Rajiv Gandhi Hospital ( 450 beds), Max Hospital's E block in Saket (318 beds), Apollo (50 beds), and Gangaram Hospital (42 beds). 

Though Government is saying that it is prepared to cope up with up to 30,000 active cases, the fact is that Delhi has only 1200 oxygen beds and 400 ventilators ( if all of them are in working condition) to combat the deadly virus.

Delhi Government has plans to quarantine up to 30,000 patients, i.e. 8,000 beds ( including 2,860 beds as above) at various private hospitals, 12,000 hotel rooms, and 10,000 rooms at banquet halls and guest houses.

But do they have the Doctors, Nursing staff, Equipment, Medicines, etc. for the so-called 12,000 hotel rooms as well as 10,000 rooms at various banquet halls and guest houses, to treat the patients or all these are likely to become the dumping grounds? 

As per the analysis of the biggest cohort reported by the Chinese CDC, about 81% of the cases are mild, 14% required hospitalization and 5% require ventilator and critical care management, i.e. About 15% of the patients are likely to require hospitalization, and an additional 5 % will require ventilator management. 

In such a case, if Delhi gets 30,000 Active coronavirus cases, it will require at least 4,500 oxygen beds as well as 1,500 ventilators, while the arrangements are made for only 1,200 oxygen beds and 400 ventilators. What if Delhi gets much more than the 30,000 positive cases as the asymptomatic symptom will create a huge problem in identifying the positive cases.

We don't even know the fate of other patients, who visit the hospitals for other serious ailments regularly. Though, Delhi CM in a Press conference has said that the most serious -- those already suffering from other diseases and above the age of 50 --- will be kept in hospitals (?) while others will be accommodated elsewhere (?)," the Chief Minister said, adding the rooms outside the hospitals will also have all the medical facilities.  

Even today, the other patients, above the age of 50, with other serious ailments, such as heart, liver, cancer, diabetes, etc. are not able to find a bed in various Delhi Hospitals, while the city presently has only appx 1,500 - 1,700 active cases of coronavirus. What will happen in case the coronavirus spreads in the city? What will be the fate of the other patients, below the age of 50, who are to be accommodated elsewhere?

आपको डराना हमारा मकसद नहीं है, लेकिन जो प्रोजेक्शन्स आ रही हैं अगले 15 से 20 दिनों के लिये, वो भयावह हैं। अगर हम लोग अपने घरों में टिक सके तो ठीक, वर्ना सब कुछ भगवान भरोसे, क्योंकि सरकारों के पास हमारे लिए कुछ भी नहीं है।